If you’ve been actively following current financial events then you’re likely sick of hearing the word Brexit. I recommend that you skip this introduction and go to the numbered list of scenarios.
Today (06.23.2016) the UK held a referendum to determine whether they will remain in or leave the European Union. A referendum is supposed to be a democratic process where every eligible citizen can vote on a particular measure. Brexit refers to a ‘British exit’ from the European Union and the term exists because as everyone knows your branding must either be crafty wordplay or Orwellian newspeak.
Polls have closed and between the markets, bookies, and currency markets it seems that a Brexit will not happen, but the final results haven’t been announced. The campaign has been acrimonious and full of extreme rhetoric and forecasts. Last week the murder of Jo Cox, a pro European Union member of parliament, supposedly put the campaigns on hold – although the Remain camp certainly didn’t stop trying pontificating about the incident and working it into their rhetoric during the suspension period. Momentum was in the Leave camp until the unfortunate event last week that flipped the betting lines, the markets, and the narrative. As I write Dow futures have moved up 600 points since MP Cox was killed.
I’ll spare you the details of how this process demonstrates the fallacy of current financial ‘markets’ and why the management of perception is all that matters. After the results arrive an analysis will be necessary, but at this point it is important to consider a few different interpretations of the potential voting results.
Scenario 1: Remain wins / no voting fraud / EU status quo continues / UK prospers
Comment: Actual democratic elections do not occur and the UK is not on a prosperous path.
Scenario 2: Remain wins / voting fraud / EU centralization accelerates / UK suffers
Comment: Those pushing towards totalitarian globalism don’t appreciate resistance.
Scenario 3: Leave wins / no voting fraud / EU begins to crack / UK prospers
Probability: ~0% (most desirable outcome in my view)
Comment: If there actually is a Brexit then the propagandists have too much at stake in the narrative of it being a negative economic outcome to allow freedom and prosperity. There are many big guns who have made dire predictions and warnings recently and their money is on the line too.
Scenario 4: Leave wins / voting fraud / EU disintegration accelerates / UK suffers
Comment: A spike in uncertainty could trigger a risk off move. Given the lack of liquidity in the markets the magnitude of shocks is greatly expanded.
Ultimately, my best guess is that the UK will remain in the EU and that this will be an opportunity for risk on markets to rise to potentially all time highs – at least in the US – after a brief sell the news move down. Paper prices of precious metals will be smacked continuously lower because that’s what happens. This can kicking maneuver would probably suffice to buy another couple months of relative calm if there aren’t any black swans.
If a Brexit does happen then hold on to your hats because the markets will be caught flat footed and we could potentially be looking at limit down halts all over the place and perhaps even closed markets on Friday in various places.
Even though there’s a high probability that this is all just one massive distraction from any number of things potentially including the escalating provocation of Russia by NATO, I’ll be setting an alarm to check the results overnight.
Personally I’m getting rather tired of the narrative manipulation that reduces everything in all the financial casinos everywhere to one issue or catalyst alone and ignores the big picture. However, that is the way our ‘markets’ function now and they will continue to do so until the system can no longer be sustained. That’s when ‘The Heist’ will be on.