Greetings fellow amateurs,
In the week since the last update I have appeared on The Hagmann & Hagmann Report as well as Remnant Radio Network. The Amateur Society podcast is now available on iTunes and on the Podcast app for iPhones. Our latest interview was with Doc Marquis. It’s a busy time here, so stay up to date with everything that we’re releasing by following us on WordPress, iTunes, Gab, Steemit, Spreaker, and YouTube!
Now, without further delay, back to the economics materials. What a first week for President Trump. Even his most entrenched opponents must admit that this is a man of action and a man of his word thus far. If this pace keeps up, then we won’t recognize the world by the end of the year. Let’s see how the manufacturing and trade trajectories begin to shift over the first couple quarters of 2017. The final manipulated data is in on Obama’s tenure, and even with the ridiculously suppressed inflation numbers he became the first president not to have a single year of 3.0% GDP growth. I guess they couldn’t fake it that blatantly without rendering too much of a disconnect to keep the narrative in check. That is one aspect of his legacy that Trump can’t shred. One additional observation is that when average GDP growth figures for Obama are stated, the contraction in 2009 drags the rest of it down. I prefer the statistic about never hitting 3.0% because it is more illustrative.
On the systemic monetary reset front, Greece is now back in the news. Shockingly their bad debt is still a problem. Perhaps this time they will have the brains and the guts to bite the bullet and make a go of things on their own. Talking to Trump, Putin, and Xi may allow them to have other options than being tied down by Germany, and since Berlin is likely to flip on both Merkel and the Russia sanctions, this time around a Grexit may be more likely from the currency union if not the political bloc.
Dow 20,000 happened too. Whether you’re breaking out the champagne or distraught by the continuation and extension of the many bubbles that are out there, you can find more of my commentary from Wednesday’s article: Dow 20,000 – A Few Observations.
If you’re in the mood for some more extensive global economic materials then you may be interested in what Jim Willie has to say in the following interview:
I’d recommend subscribing to Finance and Liberty as the interviews and information are outstanding. That being said, let’s check in with GSB.
After a run back above $1,200 and a consolidation that topped out around $1,220 a couple times, gold closed under the $1,200 mark to end the week. This area below $1,200 and above $1,150 is a wait and see zone. It would be bullish in the near term to see a break back above $1,200 and even more so above the $1,230 level. If you’re looking to scoop up some additional gold or to make an extra deposit in your Goldmoney account you could wait for the upside price action or a further drop back down to the $1,120 area. It looks like the plan has been to hold the manipulation together and steady the course thus far, because otherwise we’d see dramatic moves in an attempt to find real fair value. Behind the scenes, it may be that Trump doesn’t want to pull the plug on the fraud until some progress has been made on the physical economy. Whether the bad guys still have the access to crash the system or if they haven’t been pushed that far yet remains to be seen. I don’t have the inside information necessary to speak definitively on that, but I can say that everyone should continue to accumulate gold at advantageous prices.
Silver had spent some time in the $17.00 area, and was able to rebound a bit better than gold to close the week. There is a price showdown coming with resistance appearing in the form of the $17.20 price area, the 100 day simple moving average, and the trendline from the summer top on the daily chart. Technical analysis can certainly be overridden by algorithms, but some algorithms play technical analysis. Long story short, if we see prices above $18.00 next week it will be a rather bullish signal. Any price under $20.00 is a spectacular buy on silver. Continue to accumulate, and you could also buy on a break above $17.50 or on a dip to $16.00. Silver is awesome, and this half-year stomping down has coiled even more energy into the spring. Keep taking advantage of these prices.
A zoomed out look at bitcoin on the daily shows you how strong the price action has been and why it made sense to wait until a dip back to below the $800 level. Nice grab for those who stood up to buy at the trendline support. We’re a bit away from the moving average on the daily chart, but we’re still in a solid uptrend. This doesn’t mean that overnight some announcement couldn’t change the picture, but I’d be looking to grab some more back at the $800 area. Below there you’d have to watch the price closely, but I’d expect the overall volatility to continue decreasing unless we get another upside rush. My instinct – admittedly fallible as it may be – says that the latest two weeks of consolidation has been warranted and that if we go sideways at the $900 level for a while longer it will be healthy to build up for another push above the $1,000 mark. If you don’t have any bitcoin you could nibble here, but it’s not a load the boats situation. Continue to slowly accumulate at good prices or constructive price action and stick with whatever thesis you have. Speculation is risky, but when we balance it out across asset classes we can position ourselves to take advantage of a wide array of scenarios and timings.
As always: do your own research, these are just one man’s opinions, and God bless!